A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
